The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is rising, driving a rebound in gold prices

Everbright Futures commented that COMEX gold surged significantly in the late session, closing at $4133.8 per ounce, an increase of 1.33%. The domestic SHFE gold night session opened high and fluctuated, closing at 934.74 yuan per gram, an increase of 0.541%. As the instability in the U.S. financial markets becomes more pronounced, the Federal Reserve has shown a dovish stance regarding a rate cut in December. Last night, San Francisco Fed President Daly expressed support for a rate cut at next month's meeting, citing the greater likelihood of a sudden deterioration in the job market, which is harder to manage than soaring inflation. Combined with previous statements from the New York Fed President also supporting a rate cut, this has sharply increased the market's expectations for a December rate cut, briefly alleviating concerns about liquidity issues, stabilizing U.S. stocks, weakening the dollar, and strengthening gold in the short term.

In terms of geopolitical issues, the U.S. and Russia proposed a 28-point "peace agreement" regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation, with clear differences among the parties. Ukraine subsequently stated that the U.S. and Ukraine had finalized a new draft peace proposal, while Russia claimed that the European proposal was not constructive, and that the U.S. proposal could, in principle, serve as a basis for a peace agreement. In the short term, gold has performed strongly due to expectations of a rate cut; however, as signs of easing in the Russia-Ukraine situation emerge and the Fed's passive rate cuts lack sustainability, gold may maintain a high-level fluctuation in the future. In terms of operations, as the future trend of gold prices remains unclear, investors should adopt a wait-and-see approach, or consider buying on dips from an asset allocation perspective. (Jin Shi)