J.P.Morgan wary of stablecoin's trillion-dollar growth bets, cuts them by half

J.P.Morgan on Thursday forecast stablecoin growth will only reach $500 billion by 2028, calling trillion-dollar projections "far too optimistic", as there was little evidence of mainstream adoption of the dollar-pegged cryptocurrency token.

Stablecoins have moved beyond their crypto trading roots to attract interest from fintechs and banks aiming to speed up payments and settlements, drawing attention from U.S. lawmakers, who last month passed the GENIUS Act in the Senate - a step analysts said could bring long-awaited regulatory clarity.

Before the Senate passed the stablecoin bill, Standard Chartered projected the market could reach $2 trillion by 2028, while Bernstein forecast in a June 30 note that supply would grow to about $4 trillion over the next decade.

But J.P.Morgan said payments adoption of stablecoins remains minimal, accounting for just 6% of demand, or about $15 billion. It estimated the stablecoin market at $250 billion, with most usage concentrated in crypto trading, decentralized finance and collateral.

"The idea that stablecoins will replace traditional money for everyday use is still far from reality," the brokerage said.

Stablecoin adoption beyond crypto markets faces hurdles from limited use cases and fragmented regulation, while international uptake remains limited as most countries focus on their own digital currencies or strengthening existing payment systems.

In June, the head of China's central bank pledged to expand the international use of the digital yuan or e-CNY.

Ant Group (688688.SS), an affiliate of e-commerce giant Alibaba , said it plans to apply for a license to issue stablecoins in Hong Kong through its overseas arm Ant International, which operates mobile payment app Alipay.

"Neither the rapid expansion of e-CNY nor the success of Alipay and WeChat Pay represent templates for stablecoin expansion in the future," J.P.Morgan said.