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Bitcoin Rises on Israel-Iran Ceasefire News — Market Talk

Dow Jones Newswires

Jun 24, 2025 06:55:00

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0655 GMT - Bitcoin rises as risk appetite improves after President Trump said Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire. "As things stand, the past 12 days look set to join the long list of geopolitical shocks that proved temporarily disruptive but had little lasting effect on markets," Deutsche Bank analysts say in a note. However, uncertainty remains elevated with reports of continued fighting. Iranian state media reported Israeli attacks on Tehran and Israel's military said it had intercepted drones launched by Iran. Outstanding questions remain, from whether a ceasefire will hold to the future of what remains of Iran's nuclear program, Deutsche Bank's analysts say. Bitcoin rises 1.9% to $105,793, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0647 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields are little changed in early trade as Germany's Ifo data and third-quarter borrowing review, both at 0800 GMT, await investors. Meanwhile, a tentative ceasefire between Israel and Iran improves sentiment for now. Germany's Ifo business climate index is expected to show a slight improvement in June from May. The bulk of a potential increase in German funding is likely to be financed via treasury bills, or Bubills. "We expect Bubill issuance to absorb most of the increase in 2025 German funding needs," say Citi analysts. "Bund issuance might go up by 10-20 billion euros, likely to be fully absorbed in the newly opened 7-year [Bund]," they say. The 10-year Bund yield is up 0.6 basis point at 2.512%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0632 GMT - The dollar falls to a one-week low against a basket of currencies as oil prices decline and demand for safe havens wane after President Trump said Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire. Whether the ceasefire lasts remains a question as reports already indicate that Iran has violated the agreement to suspend the conflict, Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar says in a note. However, investors can "breathe a sigh of relief that chances of a major escalation have been reduced." The DXY dollar index falls 0.4% to a low of 97.969. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0605 GMT - Economic data, Germany's third-quarter borrowing review, European Central Bank speeches and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's House testimony move into focus for bond investors amid a tentative ceasefire between Israel and Iran. "Advocates of the 'nothing-ever-happens' meme feel vindicated, and neither Ifo nor Powell look set to change this complacency today," says Commerzbank Research's Christoph Rieger in a note. The above-consensus increase Commerzbank economists expect for Germany's Ifo business sentiment "should not provide relevant headwinds for Bunds," the head of rates and credit research says. As regards Germany's funding review, Commerzbank sees modest upside risk. The German Finance Agency may prefer to err on the high side with the option of reducing rather than raising the funding volumes in the fourth quarter, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0553 GMT - Barclays retains its slightly bearish view on the yen, two strategists write in a research report. There is scope for the U.S. dollar to strengthen further against the yen than previously projected due to factors such as a reduction in U.S.-China tariff levels and a delayed U.S.-Japan policy rate convergence, they say. The yen is also likely to continue facing structural downward pressures from catalysts including continued outward investment, the strategists add. However, Barclays sees some risk of near-term yen strength that could stem from an increase in global equity risk premium due to trade uncertainty, a U.S. slowdown or geopolitical tensions. USD/JPY is 0.5% lower at 145.41. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0551 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields edge marginally higher as President Trump said a ceasefire between Israel and Iran is now in effect. Risk appetite is rising but the calm is fragile. "So far, a ceasefire--or at least the averted risk of extended conflict--seems to be the main assumption in the markets," SEB Research economist Elisabet Kopelman says in a note. The two-year Treasury yield is up 2.2 basis points at 3.849%; the 10-year yield is up 1.6 basis points at 4.337% and the 30-year is up 1 bp at 4.868%, according to LSEG. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0537 GMT - Uncertainty may be the most consistent market force this year, but that doesn't mean investors should retreat, AllianceBernstein's Scott DiMaggio says in a note. If anything, the muted response in U.S. Treasurys following a major geopolitical event highlights how traditional assumptions about safe havens are being re-evaluated in real time, the head of fixed income says. "Given the escalation of the Middle East crisis, we expect elevated volatility to persist, but that creates opportunity for active managers," he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0503 GMT - Rate-cut prospects for Asia-Pacific are intact, as inflation has generally receded and foreign-exchange conditions seem favorable, S&P Global Ratings economists say. Even when factoring in the recent oil-price rise amid the Middle East turmoil, S&P reckons prior falls in global energy prices and APAC currency appreciation against the dollar will damp price increases in the months ahead. The redirection of exports away from the U.S. will also curb price growth. Forex strength against the dollar mean external factors are unlikely to significantly constrain policy rate cuts, S&P adds. Rate differentials with the U.S. work against rate cuts in the region, but that hasn't prevented APAC currencies from appreciating by an average of almost 5% against the dollar this year. Policymakers' flagging of growth risks only adds to the case for rate reductions. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

0450 GMT - The U.S.'s strikes on Iran will likely have only a limited impact on the global macroeconomic outlook, according to Lombard Odier's Samy Chaar. Economic repercussions would depend largely on crude oil supplies and routes, and these would need to be disrupted to have a lasting effect, Chaar says in a commentary. "Overall, we see limited impact on equity markets, unless a substantially larger risk to oil production materializes and creates a longer-term impact on interest rates--which is not our base case at this stage." Lombard Odier maintains its investment strategy for now. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0427 GMT - Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has rejected assertions that he was slow to signal the government's support for the recent U.S. attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. In a television interview with Sky News, Albanese said, "I run a considered, orderly government. We have made it clear...that Iran could not be allowed to get a nuclear weapon." Albanese stressed that the U.S. acted unilaterally when attacking Iran, and said Australia wasn't given prior notice. Albanese was one of the world leaders who missed out on a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump at the recent G-7 meeting. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)

0406 GMT - The Bank of Thailand is likely to keep its policy rate unchanged on Wednesday, says Goldman Sachs in a note. Economist Hui Shan and analyst Chelsea Song expect the central bank to adopt a 'wait-and-see' approach, while preserving the little fiscal space it has. They note rising domestic political uncertainty and a U.S. unilateral tariff potential announcement in the coming weeks. Under the U.S. reciprocal tariffs--which are temporarily paused--Thailand faces a 36% duty. Goldman Sachs continues to expect BOT to deliver another 50 bps cuts during the remainder of this year.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0324 GMT - Whether Israel and Iran adhere to the potential ceasefire will determine oil prices, Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva says in a research note. Headlines are driving oil prices, with wild price actions indicating that investor sentiment is on edge, she says. After U.S. President Trump said Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, oil prices have fallen to levels seen just before the Israeli attacks, merely within a few hours, she says. Markets still await official confirmations from Israel and Iran, as Iran's foreign minister denied Trump's ceasefire claims. Iran is the third-largest oil producer in OPEC and eased tensions could help ensure a steady flow of oil to the global market, she adds. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

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